2015 Outfield Position Primer
All your fake dreams can come true with a carefully assembled outfield corps.
The position has top-end category fillers and plenty of one trick ponies available late in drafts. That said, with offense down throughout the league, the outfield suffers from a lot of the same question marks we’ve seen across the rest of the positions thus far, but it just isn’t as drastic.
Five-category contributors, bombers and speedsters will fly off the board in the early rounds and waiting on the position could be detrimental, especially if you’re not adequately boosting your hitters at other positions. Attacking the position gradually throughout the draft, or loading up on outfield values in the middle rounds is a solid strategy.
With platoon players more common and playing time spread out more, there are fewer everyday starters available. Expect there to be fewer luxuries in the late rounds, so it is ill-advised to leave multiple outfield roster slots in the hands of platoon players or potential category anchors.
Instead use the outfield depth to fill in your gaps at other positions as you’re building your team and realizing your weaknesses. While your hand is often forced in the infield, it shouldn’t be in the outfield. Need an uptick in the power categories or stolen bases and runs … address it mid-draft via the outfield, because unless you wait to long, there will be options.
2014 Top 36 Average Stats:
| RNK | PLAYER, TEAM POS | TEAM | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout, LAA OF | LAA | 602 | 115 | 173 | 36 | 111 | 16 | 0.287 |
| 2 | Michael Brantley, Cle OF | CLE | 611 | 94 | 200 | 20 | 97 | 23 | 0.327 |
| 3 | Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF | MIA | 539 | 89 | 155 | 37 | 105 | 13 | 0.288 |
| 4 | Carlos Gomez, Mil OF | MIL | 574 | 95 | 163 | 23 | 73 | 34 | 0.284 |
| 5 | Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF | PIT | 548 | 89 | 172 | 25 | 83 | 18 | 0.314 |
| 6 | Jose Bautista, Tor OF | TOR | 553 | 101 | 158 | 35 | 103 | 6 | 0.286 |
| 7 | Nelson Cruz, Sea OF, DH | BAL | 613 | 87 | 166 | 40 | 108 | 4 | 0.271 |
| 8 | Charlie Blackmon, Col OF | COL | 593 | 82 | 171 | 19 | 72 | 28 | 0.288 |
| 9 | Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY OF | NYY | 575 | 71 | 156 | 16 | 70 | 39 | 0.271 |
| 10 | Ben Revere, Phi OF | PHI | 601 | 71 | 184 | 2 | 28 | 49 | 0.306 |
| 11 | Adam Jones, Bal OF | BAL | 644 | 88 | 181 | 29 | 96 | 7 | 0.281 |
| 12 | Billy Hamilton, Cin OF | CIN | 563 | 72 | 141 | 6 | 48 | 56 | 0.25 |
| 13 | Hunter Pence, SF OF | SF | 650 | 106 | 180 | 20 | 74 | 13 | 0.277 |
| 14 | Justin Upton, SD OF | ATL | 566 | 77 | 153 | 29 | 102 | 8 | 0.27 |
| 15 | Denard Span, Wsh OF | WSH | 610 | 94 | 184 | 5 | 37 | 31 | 0.302 |
| 16 | Corey Dickerson, Col OF | COL | 436 | 74 | 136 | 24 | 76 | 8 | 0.312 |
| 17 | Starling Marte, Pit OF | PIT | 495 | 73 | 144 | 13 | 56 | 30 | 0.291 |
| 18 | Matt Kemp, SD OF | LAD | 541 | 77 | 155 | 25 | 89 | 8 | 0.287 |
| 19 | Josh Harrison, Pit OF, 3B | PIT | 520 | 77 | 164 | 13 | 52 | 18 | 0.315 |
| 20 | Yasiel Puig, LAD OF | LAD | 558 | 92 | 165 | 16 | 69 | 11 | 0.296 |
| 21 | Jayson Werth, Wsh OF | WSH | 534 | 85 | 156 | 16 | 82 | 9 | 0.292 |
| 22 | J.D. Martinez, Det OF | DET | 441 | 57 | 139 | 23 | 76 | 6 | 0.315 |
| 23 | Rajai Davis, Det OF | DET | 461 | 64 | 130 | 8 | 51 | 36 | 0.282 |
| 24 | Yoenis Cespedes, Det OF, DH | BOS/OAK | 600 | 89 | 156 | 22 | 100 | 7 | 0.260 |
| 25 | Melky Cabrera, CWS OF | TOR | 568 | 81 | 171 | 16 | 73 | 6 | 0.301 |
| 26 | Christian Yelich, Mia OF | MIA | 582 | 94 | 165 | 9 | 54 | 21 | 0.284 |
| 27 | Alex Gordon, KC OF | KC | 563 | 87 | 150 | 19 | 74 | 12 | 0.266 |
| 28 | Matt Holliday, StL OF | STL | 574 | 83 | 156 | 20 | 90 | 4 | 0.272 |
| 29 | Lorenzo Cain, KC OF | KC | 471 | 55 | 142 | 5 | 53 | 28 | 0.301 |
| 30 | Brett Gardner, NYY OF | NYY | 555 | 87 | 142 | 17 | 58 | 21 | 0.256 |
| 31 | Danny Santana, Min SS, OF | MIN | 405 | 70 | 129 | 7 | 40 | 20 | 0.319 |
| 32 | Torii Hunter, Min OF | DET | 549 | 71 | 157 | 17 | 83 | 4 | 0.286 |
| 33 | Ryan Braun, Mil OF | MIL | 530 | 68 | 141 | 19 | 81 | 11 | 0.266 |
| 34 | Marcell Ozuna, Mia OF | MIA | 565 | 72 | 152 | 23 | 85 | 3 | 0.269 |
| 35 | Drew Stubbs, Col OF | COL | 388 | 67 | 112 | 15 | 43 | 20 | 0.289 |
| 36 | Marlon Byrd, Cin OF | PHI | 591 | 71 | 156 | 25 | 85 | 3 | 0.264 |
| Top 36 Average | 528.42 | 75.5 | 147.75 | 16 | 68.25 | 12.75 | 0.281 |
Top 5 Outfielders
Note: the ranks below represent Esten McLaren’s personal top-5. Check our staff consensus for more detail.
After a strong 2014, Carlos Gomez has hit sights set on number one (Photo: Mike McGinnis/Getty Images North America).
5. Carlos Gomez, MIL
Going for his third straight 20-20 season, Gomez has 111 stolen bases over the last three seasons. He was a touch more patient at the plate last season as he cut down on his strikeouts and drew a few more walks. With Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy batting behind him, Gomez will have a great opportunity to finally crack the 100 runs scored mark. He has extra value in SWAG leagues, and would probably go number one.
4. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF TOR
Bautista has been discussed in full in our 2015 First Base Primer, but is also a top-five player at second position of eligibility. Able to fill out every category except for stolen bases – 17 steals over the last three season – Bautista’s patience is his best quality and boosts his value in OBP leagues.
3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
If it weren’t for an injury shortening his 2014 campaign, McCutchen would’ve had his fourth straight 20-20 season, but he fell just two stolen bases shy. Last season was his first with fewer than 650 plate appearances and 150 games played since 2009 as the Pirates decided to play it safe with their cornerstone once out of playoff contention.
2. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
This is the year. With some support back around him in Miami, this is the year that Giancarlo Stanton is truly going to become a star. After hitting 30+ homers in three of the past four seasons, Stanton possesses the potential to reach 40 or even 50 home runs in 2015. With a ballpark built specifically for his strengths, Stanton’s ability to steal double-digit bases is an extra and unnecessary bonus to his value. He’s the number two outfielder – if not the number two overall pick.
1. Mike Trout, LAA
Well, ya. No need to say much, here.
Rookies to Watch: Outfield
Soler is by far the safest of the Cubs’ young prospects and is the early favorite at National League Rookie of the Year in 2015. The 23-year-old hit 15 home runs and 23 doubles in 62 games last season across all three levels (Rookie, AA and AAA). He carried that power to the majors with five bombs in 97 plate appearances and even though he only played in 24 games he supported a 281 ISO showing his power is legit. I wouldn’t worry about the .339 BABIP as Soler carried a high BABIP across all levels over the past two seasons. He should be the Cubs starting right fielder and will be a top 30 OF in 2015.
Castillo is ranks inside the top 30 outfielders according to some on Fantasypros and his ADP sits at 134. It seems fair given that Castillo has been bothered by an oblique injury for most of camp. It’s not believed to be serious and he’s expected to be ready for camp, but it’s likely he goes to early in drafts. Part of the reason has to do with the fact that he’s a Red Sox and he’s a rookie, but we like to think it’s because he has 20/20 potential.
We got a taste last season when Castillo hit two home runs, drove in six runs and stole three bases in just 10 games (40 plate appearances). Small sample size yes, but the Sox signed the 27-year-old to a $72.5 million dollar contract in hopes he could be their everyday center fielder, even with Jackie Bradley Jr and Mookie Betts in the system. Castillo will get first crack at the job and certainly has the kill to lock down a 500 plate appearances. 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases is not out of the question. Start thinking about him in the middle rounds and earlier in keeper leagues.
It’s easy to look at Pederson’s numbers from last season and get excited. The 22-year-old hit .303 with 33 home runs, 78 RBI, stole 30 bases and scored 106 runs. I will remind you that he was hitting in the friendly environment that it is California and the Pacific Coast league. He won the PCL MVP Award and became the Triple-s circuit’s first 30-30 player in 80 years. With that said, the Dodgers decided to ship Matt Kemp to San Diego so their willing to give Pederson center field.
He struggled in his first 28 big league at-bats picking up only four hits, but just like the Dodgers, owners should be patien. He certainly has 20 home run potential in his first year, but Pederson will strike out a ton and shouldn’t hit higher than .260 in his first season.
Pompey is a great source for late round speed as he stole 43 stolen bases across all three minor league levels last season and he swiped 38 the year before that in Single-A ball. He struck out 28 percent of his 43 at-bats in the bigs last season, but will certainly have a spot in a powerful Toronto lineup everyday. Two of his nine big league hits were triples last season and he took Felix Hernandez deep. With that said, he can really only help you in one category unless he finds himself atop the Jays’ lineup with an injury to Jose Reyes (It’s possible).
With Wil Myers out of town the Rays will be able to see what they have with Souza who was apart of the 11-player trade. Souza is expected to get everyday at-bats with Tampa Bay this season after having his way in Triple-A ball. The 25-year-old gad a .350/.432/.590 slash line with 18 home runs and 26 stolen bases. 15/15 season in his rookie year is within reach and won’t cost a thing come draft day.
Outfield Sleepers
Span will come with an even better price tag come draft day with the recent news that he’ll be sidelined from baseball activities for the next 4-6 weeks. Span will start the season on the DL and could miss the first month of 2015, but don’t let that shy you away from drafting the Nationals center fielder and leadoff man. The 31-year-old has hit at least .279 over the past three seasons with a total of 68 stolen bases over that span. He scored 94 runs with a .302 average in 2014 while swiping 31 bags. He has no power at all, but is a great source for late-round speed if you don’t want to spend high picks on the Jose Altuve‘s, Billy Hamilton‘s and Dee Gordon‘s of the world.
Much like Span, Eaton is hitting atop a powerful lineup in 2015. Eaton had a solid .300 average in his first season with the White Sox ad he scored 76 runs and stole 15 bases in 123 games (152 plate appearances). He also finished tied for second with 10 triples. If he can avoid the injury bug which he couldn’t last season, there is 90 run and 20 stolen base upside. Only 18 players scored 90 runs last season and 10 of them had 10 stolen bases. Eaton should be in elite company in his fourth year. His ECR is OF#56, but his upside is much higher than that.
Only 20 players hit 25 home runs in 2014 and Arcia would have been one of them if not for an injury that cut his season short. Arcia hit 20 homers in only 410 plate appearances last season and he hit 14 in 378 plate appearances in his rookie year so we know the power is for real. .179 ISO in 2013 followed by a .220 ISO in 2014 backs up our statement, but there will be a lot of strikeouts to go along with all that power. The Twins OF had a 31 strikeout percentage in his first and second season. Don’t count on a solid average, but count on 20 plus home runs.
Been compared to by some as a Miguel Cabrera clone and maybe that’s why the Tigers parted ways with Garcia, but either way his 240 lbs frame produces a lot of power to go along with rare speed for a big man. Across four seasons of minor league ball, Garcia combined for 43 home runs and 66 stolen bases. His season was cut short last season due to a shoulder injury, but he has 14 home runs through his first 463 big league at-bats. It’s most likely Garcia is an OF4, but he has the potential to be and OF3.
24-year-old Ozuna smacked 23 home runs last season after only hitting three in his rookie season (291 plate appearances). He managed 612 at-bats in 2014 and it’s not like the power came out of nowhere. The Marlins’ OF hit 68 home runs from 2010-1213 across low-end A ball and high-end A ball. Ozuna was too good for AAA and only played 10 AA games in 2013. Like a lot of these guys on this list, the average will be poor, but the power is for real. Not considered a sleeper as his ADP is just outside the top 100, but even at 124, that’s a steal.
Outfield Busts
We’re joining the fray and calling out the obvious with Michael Cuddyer. His ranks and his ADP reflect this viewpoint, but, it should be noted that the 35-year-old who is coming off back-to-back seasons with an average North of .330 (after never hitting better than .284) is in line for a significant drop-off due to his departure from the friendly confines of Coors Field. He won’t cost you much, but, there are much better upside options toward the end of your draft.
Michael Brantley broke out in a big way in 2014, and I’m expecting him to put together another solid all around season. With that said, it is going to be very difficult to justify his rise in draft stock. He’ll come off the board in the late second/early third in most drafts as the 8th outfield eligible player selected. At 27-years-old he finally put it all together last year, doubling his career best home run total to 20, stealing 23 bags and falling just short of 100 each in runs and RBI. With a .327 average Brantley was a true five category roto contributor. Again, he did that by posting career numbers across the board in his batted ball profile, and those gains are going to be hard to maintain. Truly, much of the increase was a result of a clear progression as Brantley was more selective at the plate, struck out less and hit balls harder with career bests in LD% and HR/FB, but, with a slight dip in those liners and a regression due in that 12.7 HR/FB mark that was almost double his career high he’s someone I’d rather get a few rounds later. We aren’t the only ones who hold that viewpoint.
Bounce back Outfielders
I wouldn’t typically peg a 32-year-old veteran as a solid bounceback candidate after a significant drop off in batting average and hard hit balls, but here we are with Shin-Soo Choo. Boiling poor production down to an injury can be an over simplification, to be sure, but when news came in late August that Choo’s ankle and elbow issues lingered all season, affecting his play, we had to put some stock in that statement. After all, Choo had hit .280 or better in every big league season but one heading into 2014 and struggled to a .242 mark in his first year with the Rangers, to say that drop was unexpected would be an understatement. Of course, it was down in part because his strikeouts rose considerably: from 18.7% to a full season career-high of 24.7% last year, and no saying ‘the elbow injury sapped his pop’ will help explain the increased swing and miss rate, but with his batted ball peripherals down across the board I think you can attribute some of the dip to just that. Choo has been a remarkably consistent hitter across his major league career and I’d expect his numbers to come back up in 2015 to the point that he’ll have something to offer in all five categories.
Mark Trumbo was likewise limited by injury last year, getting in just half a season in his first year in Arizona. His .235 batting average marks the second straight season at that level, and expecting anything better than the .250 range is probably asking too much, but Trumbo has just three full MLB seasons to his name and has hit 29-34 home runs in each of them, with no fewer than 87 RBI. He’s a run producer and a good fit for Chase Field… look for average elsewhere but enjoy the production that comes with a 150 game season.
Late Round Lottery Tickets: Outfield
Austin Jackson
Austin Jackson‘s current ADP of 236 slots him in the last couple of rounds of fantasy drafts but besides last year he’s consistently been a top 40 outfielder. Jackson has scored over 90 runs in 4 of the past 5 seasons including 2 over 100. Jackson had his worst season in the majors in 2014 but should be primed for a return to his top 30-40 fantasy outfield form and definitely should be drafted in the last couple of rounds.
Jackson will be leading off in a Mariners lineup that added last years AL Home-Run leader in Nelson Cruz which will benefit already one of the games best hitters in Robinson Cano. Jackson should be able to post another 90 run season. In just 54 games with the Mariners last year, Jackson recorded 11 stolen bases in 13 attempts. So a return to 20 stolen bases, 90+ potential runs. Not too shabby late round!
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