2015 Shortstop Position Primer

2015 Shortstop Position Primer

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There is more of the same at shortstop heading into the 2015 season. The position is top heavy, with a large tier of upside/risk types and a substantial drop off in talent the further down the rankings you go.

Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez project to be the first two shortstops off the board in the majority of drafts. However, Ian Desmond‘s three consecutive 20/20 seasons make him the most reliable commodity for those adverse to risk. Still, the potential return from Tulowitzki, if he were ever able to reach 600 plate appearances, is difficult to pass up.

The middle grounds are an interesting mix of fading veterans and youngsters with inconsistent year-to-year numbers or questions marks. While failing to secure a top-10 shortstop leaves you chasing the top tiers of the position, there are still serviceable options available late.

As long as you’re not left relying on a late-round shortstop to carry a category, waiting and hitching your wagon to a Jhonny Peralta or Erick Aybar is by no means going to ruin your season. Just make sure to identify your preferences and ensure you land one, especially in leagues with middle-infield slots.

2014 Top 12 Average Stats:

Top 5 Shortstops

The top-5 below represent Esten McLaren’s personal ranks. For a more fulsome view, check our staff consensus.

The question remains. Go early and assume the risk with top-tier SS like Troy Tulowitzki or wait on the position? (Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America).

5. Jimmy Rollins, LAD

While he’ll turn 37 years old in the calendar year of 2016, Rollins remains highly effective across the board. His power numbers correctly rebounded last season and he finished just three home runs shy of a 20-20 season. Playing for the Dodgers instead of the lowly Phillies should allow for the rest of the counting statistics to pick up as well. Even with the advanced age, Rollins has played at least 135 games in each of the past four seasons and is about as safe as options come at this position.

4. Jose Reyes, TOR

The turf at Rogers Centre hasn’t been kind to Jose Reyes, limiting him to 236 games over his two years since being acquired from the Miami Marlins. Last year did come with more positive signs however, as Reyes returned to the 30-stolen bases club. His walk rate has been trending downward, while his strikeouts have been mounting, which is something the veteran will surely look to address in 2015. With Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson all batting behind him, expect him to score over 100 runs for the first time since 2011.

3. Ian Desmond, WSH

With the exception of his staggering 28% K-rate in 2014, Desmond was very productive across the board with his third consecutive 20-20 season. It’s a contract year for Desmond, if owners were in need of any extra incentive. Averaging over 650 plate appearances over the last two seasons, owners can be sure they’ll at least get their money’s worth by having someone they can lock into their lineup every day.

2. Hanley Ramirez, BOS

Expected to gain outfield eligibility shortly into the 2015 season, Ramirez’ value will remain highest at the shortstop position. Han-Ram should be used only at the thinner position, where his 20-20 potential keeps him near the top of the crop. Currently slotted in between David Ortiz and Pablo Sandoval in the Red Sox batting order, Ramirez will be well cushioned. Pun intended.

1. Troy Tulowitzki, COL

Sure, Tulowitzki hasn’t played over 150 games in a season since 2009. Sure, two of his past three seasons have been limited to well below 100 games. And sure, he’s stolen just four bases over his past three seasons. But Troy Tulowitzki remains the best player at his position and it’s not remotely close.

After getting injured last season, Tulo held a commanding lead in most standard statistics for an extra month before anyone else started passing him. With 600 plate appearances last season, Tulowitzki would have hit 34 home runs, scored 114 runs, and driven in 83. Combined with the emerging Nolan Arenado and a handful of games from Carlos Gonzalez, Tulo will be a game-changer even with the likely reduced workload.

Rookies to Watch & Shortstop Sleepers

Jung-Ho Kang put up video game like numbers in Korea; 40 home runs, 117 RBI and 103 runs with a ridiculous slash line of .356/.459/.739. He and an 1.198 OBP in 501 plate appearances playing for the Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization. The KBO has been said by many to be the equivalent of AA ball. The pitching is not as great and the fences are not as deep as your average MLB park.

Kang already has a home run this spring and although his ADP on Fantasypros is 264, it will continue to rise if he has a good spring. Steamer projects 11 home runs over 378 plate appearances in his first season with the Pirates and I think that’s fair given the fact he has to split time with Jordy Mercer a short. We have no record of a player coming over from the Korean league, so it’ll be interesting to see how Kang does in his first season. He struck out once every 5.1 at-bats in his nine seasons in Korea and with the pitching stronger in North America he may have his difficulties in that category, but the power is for real and the upside is there.

Watched Jung Ho Kang take BP & pound HRs onto LCF boardwalk & deep into bleachers. Clint Hurdle: “His swing is very aggressive to the zone”

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) March 4, 2015

Shortstop Busts

Starlin Castro posted his best average since 2011, with a .292 mark in 134 games a year ago and projects to bat second in a Cubs’ lineup that is drawing lots of interest this fantasy offseason. That interest seems to have inflated his draft stock a bit, as Castro is the 6th SS taken off the board on average while last year’s finish had him pegged as the 10th best performer at his position. Some of that is the result of limited plate appearances in a season that saw him miss more than four games for the first time since his rookie season, but much of it has to do with a limited speed profile. If you’re not drafting one of the top-tier SS’s then you’re counting on the position not to kill you in average, to run a little and to score a lot. Castro stole just four bases last year and has just 13 across the last two seasons, while his .292 average seems like more of a ceiling than a floor number after .245 and .283 numbers in back-to-back years. The folks at CBS point out that that average was inflated by a .273 average on ground balls that doesn’t necessarily fit Castro’s profile. Expect a regression here, and limited offerings in the counting stats.

Evidently, Minnesota SS Danny Santana spent the offseason bulking up in an effort to maintain his strong numbers from 2014. A rookie revelation, he came out of nowhere to slash .319/.352/.472 in 101 games last year, while stealing 20 bags and scoring 70 runs. It was a great debut, and he warrants credit but not placement as a starting SS on your fantasy team. The 24-year-old’s .405 BABIP led hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. Even the most rudimentary interpretation of the laws of FanGraphs suggests that the number is in line to drop… significantly. Couple that with the fact that he struck out 22.8% of the time in his first season (which matches the inflated numbers he posted across his minor league career) and I think we’re looking at a big time falling off.

Bounce back Shortstops

Jean Segura followed the splash he made in 2013 with a mere drop in the statistical pan in 2014, losing 48 points on his batting average, 24 stolen bases and 17 extra base hits year over year. His BABIP dropped considerably, precipitating the drop in roto counting stats, but his batted ball profile hardly changed. Segura hit a ton of ground balls in 2014 (2.59 per fly ball) which should work out well for a player with his wheels, and hit 18.3% line drives which was virtually on par with his 2013 number.

What was an overly inflated stat line for that profile two years ago was an overly harsh one in his follow up season. With that in mind, the truth probably lies somewhere in between. A .270 batting average and flirtation with 30 steals/80 runs is a fair projection, and with his low (12.6% last year) strikeout rate it shouldn’t be all that hard to achieve. Bear in mind that Segura is still just 24 years old and dealt with some personal issues last year that may have affected his play. He’s being drafted after the 15th round in 12 team leagues and has a #1 shortstop finish to his credit.

Late Round Lottery Tickets: Shortstop

Jed Lowrie is a perfect late-round selection when taking a chance on a SS. He’s had trouble staying healthy throughout his career but when he has he’s been healthy he’s been among the top SS to own in fantasy. Just 2 years ago he was the 6th best ranked fantasy SS including being 4th in the MLB in RBI’s with 75. Last year he missed 26 games and finished with just 50 RBI’s but he’s been relatively healthy heading into 2015.

This season he has been reunited with Houston and he’ll have a much better lineup to be a part of this time around. There should be plenty of scoring with a lineup that features Jose Altuve, George Springer, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter. Lowrie makes great contact with the ball. He led all shortstops in the majors last year with a line drive rate of 24.4 and he continues to get on base. His career .330 OBP is very solid and his mark of .321 last year was 9th among all SS. Take a chance on the 30-year-old who has a great chance to produce in the Astros’ lineup.

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