Our staff NFL 2014 Bold Predictions make some strong statements about the upcoming season with an eye toward helping you to your fantasy title.
Of course, if you’re looking for more well reasoned advice to help you prepare for your campaign, our 2014 NFL fantasy football draft guide is here to help. Have a prediction of your own? Share it in the comments below… or feel free to let us know when we’re out of line.
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: Quarterback
Tom Brady enters the season as one of the oldest QBs in the league but with no signs of decline (Photo: Charles Krupa/Associated Press).
Esten: Derek Carr will start all 16 games for the Oakland Raiders and finish the season as a top 15 fantasy QB. The 36th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of Fresno State will replace the injured Matt Schaub in Week 1 versus the Jets and not look back. With plenty of (low to mid calibre) options in the Raiders offense the rookie will total just under 4,000 yards with 25 TDs and 15 INTs, finishing as an AFC Rookie of the Year finalist.
Jon: 37-years-old and entering the ‘best years are behind him’ stage of his career, Tom Brady pulls a Peyton Manning and throws for a career high in yardage when the seeds of doubt are creeping in. With a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen looking ready to pad the passing stats with a healthy number of receiving yards and Aaron Dobson set to break out the Patriots offense fires on all cylinders in 2014. Projection: 5,400 yards, 37 TDs, 12 picks, 340 fantasy points. In other words, last year’s QB13 posts a top-3 fantasy season.
Neil: Cam Newton fails to post a top-12 quarterback season. Already hurt — twice — and with little chemistry-developing time with his new stable of pass catchers, what is there to like about SuperCam? The Black Cats are a defense first organization, and will focus on the ground game, too. Just because Newton has been a dominant force in his first three seasons, doesn’t mean he will be in his fourth.
Chris: All the QB rookie talk has been about Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater, but it’s Blake Bortles who will be the first year QB to own in fantasy. Bortles was selected third overall by the Jags and was destined for the bench in his rookie season, but he turned heads during a strong preaseason which saw him receive the 5th highest grade among all Quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus. Bortles completed 32 of 51 passes for 521 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks. He’s already developed a connection with fellow rookie WR Marqise Lee. Both will be fun to watch this year and Bortles will finish as a Top 15 quaterback in fantasy. I give it three or four weeks before Bortles takes over behind center in place of veteran Chad Henne despite talk of Bortles sitting on the bench all season. Then we can see plays like this over and over again!
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— SB Nation GIF (@SBNationGIF) August 28, 2014
Mike: Jay Cutler will be a top 3 fantasy QB in 2014. Cutler will break his all-time personal bests in the high-octane Chicago Bear offense. Featuring 2 of the game’s best WR’s, a big TE, and one of the best catching RB’s, I like Cutler to have a superstar season. Let’s not forget Marc Trestman’s offense will enter year 2. Another year together will make them one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL this season, but best of all is their favourable schedule. Divisional foes Packers, Vikings, Lions all ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in yards allowed. Bears also get 5 other matchups against teams in bottom half including the lowly Falcons, and Cowboys defenses. Cutler will be cutting up defenses all day!
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: Running Back
Neil: Montee Ball leads the league in touchdowns. His wiggle-power combo will be on full display near the goal line and he’ll plunge them in like he did so many times as a Badger. Remember, scoring touchdowns is his thing. The starting back for the top offense in the NFL has all kinds of benefits. It will near the opposition’s goal line where Ball thrives, though. His yardage statistics might be pedestrian, but it won’t matter.
Chris: Mark Ingram will finish as a top 15 Fantasy Football RB this season. Ingram is poised for a breakout year and has the inside edge over Khiry Robinson heading into the season. Ingram’s .297 fantasy points per snap last season ranked first among all backs and he averaged .66 fantasy points per rushing attempt in standard leagues last season. A number higher than Arian Foster, Le’Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, C.J. Spiller, Zac Stacy and Ryan Mathews in 2013. Ingram just needs a chance and he has one now in a contract year. Ingram will get first crack at the goal line carries on a team that moves the ball pretty easily. Expect 10 touchdowns from the former Heisman winner.
Esten: Frank Gore will hold off rookie Carlos Hyde & Co. in the 49ers’ backfield and finish the season as a top 10 RB. Despite a decline in carries (250, down from 276 in 2013) Gore will have an increased YPC and finish with over 1,200 yards and over 10 TDs. Hyde’s time will come, but it won’t be in 2014.
Mike: Joique Bell will rush for 1000+ yards, 10 touchdowns plus 600+ receiving and be top 10 RB by season’s end; Bell finished 6th among RBs in receiving yards last season, is much better fit in Detroit’s offense than Reggie Bush. He will outperform Bush in every category in 2014, and seize control of the offense midway through the season. The Bells will ringing in Detroit this year, not for Calvin, but for Joique!
Jon: Rookie Jeremy Hill, available some seven rounds after teammate Giovani Bernard, matches his fantasy output this season. Bernard has a solid season of his own, but with each player picking up in the ballpark of 250 touches (Bernard won’t be getting to 300, folks, he’s not built for it and wore down late in 2013) and Hill netting the goalline work he produces solid RB2 numbers in his first season. Hue Jackson will work the ground game heavily, and Hill should be expected to absorb BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ workload, rushing the ball much more efficiently. Projected lines: Hill – 250-1100-10, 15-112-1; Bernard 200-820-5, 65-650-4.
Realtalk: we should note that Hill’s ADP is on the rise with the departure of BJGE, but he still stands to deliver a profit on an 8th/9th round cost.
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: Wide Receiver
Esten: Lions WR Calvin Johnson will finish outside of the top three fantasy WRs by season’s end despite playing 14+ games. The additions of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron through free agency and the NFL Draft will cut into both his targets and overall production. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant will all prove to be more valuable than the great Megatron and will all be ranked ahead of him in 2015.
Neil: Sammy Watkins will have less fantasy points than every first-round wide receiver from the 2014 NFL Draft, not named Odell Beckham Jr. E.J. Manuel is a mess behind center and Watkins is dealing with a rib injury, already. The other three (Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin) all have a superior quarterback tossing them the ball. Rookie wide receivers take their lumps anyway, but it is worse when their signal caller is awful.
Chris: I agree with Neil on Watkins, and you could even add Jordan Matthews and Marqise Lee as other rookies who are headed for a better fantasy season than the Bills rookie wideout.
Jon: Coming off down seasons plagued by injury, Roddy White and Julio Jones take a run at Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall for the title of best WR duo in the league. Both pairs post gaudy numbers, but White/Jones’ combined 3000 yards net them the title for 2014. Further, they catapult teammate Matt Ryan back into the QB top-10.
Mike: Jeremy Maclin will post his first 1,000 yard season, 10 plus touchdowns, play 16 games and finish with more fantasy points than DeSean Jackson’s 2013 total. The sky is the limit for Maclin in 2014. All he has to do is just stay healthy (and I say he does) and will get stronger by the week! With DeSean Jackson out of town, Maclin is the clear #1 option in Philadelphia. Offensive guru Chip Kelly enters his 2nd year in the league and has had a whole off-season to prepare plays for Maclin. DeSean had a career year in Philly under Kelly, and now it’s Maclin’s turn who is a better fit in the Eagles’ offense.
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: Tight End
Esten: Falcons TE Levine Toilolo will match the 8 TDs scored by future Hall of Fame inductee Tony Gonzalez last season. He’ll receive a decent chunk of the 119 targets T-Gone saw in 2013, significantly boosting the 14 he received from QB Matt Ryan. Considering he was able to score two TDs on minimal work, the door opened by Gonzalez’ departure will have Toilolo on most fantasy rosters come season’s end.
Chris: After Philadelphia and New England’s joint practice last month, the word from the Pats’ camp was that Zach Ertz can get open against anyone. That’s a pretty good defense over there in New England and a team that has seen Rob Gronkowski run all over them in practice over the past couple years. After a decent 36-469-4TD rookie line, everyone seems to be expecting Ertz to have a break out season. There are a lot of weapons in Philly, but I still expect about 5-7 targets a game for the tight end with the majority of his targets coming inside the red zone and that’s where you want them. Ertz will finish with the fourth most touchdowns among tight ends this season. Eagles’ tight ends zoach Ted Williams called Ertz one of the best route-runners he’s ever seen. All four of his scores came in the second half of the season, he’ll pick up where he left up.
Jon: Jordan Cameron becomes just the fourth TE in the last ten seasons to top 100 receptions, on a whopping 160 targets. With limited options in the passing game (and with Ben Tate lacking the reputation as a strong pass catching back) Cameron becomes both favorite deep target and safety blanket for eventual Browns starter Johnny Manziel. As a result of the change in his route structure (i.e. more short-intermediate routes to support his QB) Cameron’s YPR decreases and he fails to top 1000 yards.
Neil: Gavin Escobar scores six touchdowns. Linehan will find ceative ways to get the ball into his sticky mits near the goal line. He is a massive target and his expanded role this season will showcase his big-play ability. Make no mistake, he’ll be a nightmare if depended on for weekly fantasy production. However, he’ll be a must-own tight end sooner than later. Defenses can only cover so many weapons.
Mike: Julius Thomas will be fantasy’s #1 TE, break Gronkowski’s 17 touchdown single season TE record. Thomas is ready to take the football world by storm. With just 1 year of college football experience after playing 4 years of basketball, and just 1 reception in his first 2 seasons due to injuries and inexperience, 2013 was pretty much a rookie year for Thomas and he had quite the campaign; 65 rec, 788 yds, and 12 touchdowns in just 14 games. With Erick Decker gone, Thomas becomes the clear #2 option in Denver, and arguably #1 for most parts of the game. It’s much easier to double-team Demaryius compared to Julius. He is a matchup nightmare, and after a year’s relationship with Peyton Manning, the duo will make history together in 2014.
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: General Fantasy Football
Neil: Owners will regret not reaching for Eddie Lacy. He might not finish as the No. 1 fantasy running back, but he’ll prove to be the safest weekly option. Lacy runs behind an excellent offensive line, and the guy handing him the ball is alright, too. Opposing defenses have to respect the air game, leaving Lacy in an ideal environment to thrive. He’ll catch a few more balls than you expect, too.
Esten: Knowshon Moreno will have a better fantasy season than Montee Ball. Down in Miami the ex-Bronco will emerge past Lamar Miller as an every down back, he will surpass his 1,586 combined yards from 2013 and match his 13 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, back in Denver, his replacement will gain over 1,000 yards on the ground, yet won’t receive much goal line or passing down work.
Jon: Adrian Peterson, entering his age 29 season, plays 16 games for the Minnesota Vikings but struggles to produce (to his own lofty standards). He finishes outside of the RB top-10 for the first time in his career finishing at 4.0 YPC even on 300 carries but failing to score double digit TDs also for the first time in his career. His 1,500 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns remain plenty useful, but 2014 marks the edge of the cliff for AP.
NFL 2014 Bold Predictions: Team and League
Esten: The Cleveland Browns will finish second in the AFC North and will be in the Wildcard hunt in Week 17. Regardless of who starts more games at quarterback between Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel the Browns will be in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt all season long. Their defense will rank as the best in the AFC and the combination of Ben Tate and Terrance West will give them a top 10 run game in the league. HC Mike Pettine will be up for Coach of the Year.
Jon: The New York Giants’ playoff drought continues. In fact, the team posts the worst record in the NFC (3-13) after a disastrous transition to Ben McAdoo’s West Coast Offense. With Eli Manning again throwing more than 1.5 interceptions per game, and getting beaten up behind an offensive line that winds up as Pro Football Focus’ worst rated unit in the league, Ryan Nassib is throwing passes for the Giants by year end.
Neil: The Patriots are going to make the Super Bowl. They’re deep on offense and an injury — Tom Brady aside — will not derail their offensive attack in the slightest. They have improved defensively and should win the turnover battle consistently. The coaching staff is a plus, too, which cannot be understated. Far from shocking, but analytically speaking, who is significantly better than New England?
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