2015 First Base Position Primer

2015 First Base Position Primer

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First base is loaded with star power and rebound candidates, and they’ll be flying off the board early and often in drafts. As many as six first-base-eligible players – half the required starters in standard formats – will likely be gone by the end of Round 2 and potentially five in Round 1.

Four-category production is available deep in the position, too, though. Plus, there is a cast of former elite talents who will be widely available in the early middle rounds. Add a few breakout candidates and reliable veterans to the mix, and the position is deep. Without doubt, it is the deepest infield position.

However, this isn’t an endorsement to wait at the position. Power bats are at a premium and many of the projected home run and RBIs leaders play first base. Failing to address the position adequately will leave you chasing the pack. Also, with the lack of depth throughout the rest of the infield makes it difficult to close gaps, especially in the power categories.

Don’t be afraid to lock up your first base roster slot early. Additionally, depending on your league’s settings, it may also be advantageous to double up at the position to utilize another high-end bat in a utility or corner infield slot. Although, loading up at scarce positions and hitching your wagon to a breakout or rebound candidate might be more viable than ever in 2015.

2014 Top 12 Average Stats:

Top 5 First Basemen

As always, the ranks below represent Esten McLaren’s personal top-5. For more details, check our staff consensus ranks.

5. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR

Encarnacion’s home run totals have fallen in each of the past two seasons after hitting a career high 42 in 2012, as a result of injuries. The Blue Jays’ addition of Justin Smoak who projects to play the majority of games at first base should allow Encarnacion to spend more time as a designated hitter and ultimately stay healthier as the season winds on. His low .260 BABIP of last season should rebound towards his career average of .273, leading to a higher batting average and increased totals in the counting stats as a part of a deep and powerful lineup.

4. Jose Abreu, CHW

While Abreu’s home run totals drastically fell off in the second-half of the season, he did hit for a dramatically higher batting average. The White Sox batting order should be greatly improved with the returns of Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia and the additions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. With more support around him, Abreu will see more hittable pitches. Accompanied with his year of experience in the Major Leagues, Abreu is sure to be a big-time threat once again in 2015.

3. Jose Bautista, 1B/OF, TOR

Bautista’s health and home run totals rebounded in 2014 with his 155 games last season being his highest since the 2010 season, and his 35 homers being his most since 2011. Bautista is one of few sluggers with a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, leading to his stellar .403 OBP last season. With both Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson projected to hit behind him in the Blue Jays’ order, Bautista will have an excellent chance to exceed 100 runs scored for the second consecutive season.

2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

Goldschmidt was on pace for 28 home runs if he had been able to play in 160 games for the second consecutive season, before his 2014 campaign was cut short at 109 games. His BABIP is likely to decline from .368 but even a drop to his career average of .346 is unlikely to do that much damage to the rest of his counting statistics.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, DET

While 2014 was no doubt a down year by Cabrera’s standards, there’s no debate it was still an elite season. Many owners and experts alike are overreacting to the slight drop off by the two-time MVP, but there’s no reason not to consider him as at least the safest option at first base. Cabrera took on-field batting practice Monday, Mar. 2, and is fully expected to be ready by the beginning of the 2015 season. The addition of Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason will provide more support in the batting order. An expected boost from Cabrera’s ISO of .211 in 2014 toward the .288 mark of 2013, should dispel any belief that Cabrera is finished as an MVP candidate.

Rookies to Watch: First Base

Someone may emerge during Spring Training, but there are no fantasy relevant rooks to keep an eye on. Shoutout to Christian Walker of the Orioles.

First Base Sleepers

Mark Teixeira

Teixeira hit a career low 22 home runs last season and finished with a 21.5% strikeout rate, which was the first time it was above 20 percent since his rookie season with the Texas Rangers in 2003. His 37 percent fly ball percentage was a low as it’s ever been. A lot of that probably has to due with the fact he was coming off wrist surgery and didn’t get a full offseason. He should see better results a year removed from the injury. The Yankees also brought in new hitting coach Jeff Pentland and he’ll be working on trying to get Tex to stop swinging for the short porch in right and to forget about beating the shift.

Teixeira went in the 20th round of the FSTA/Sirius XM Experts Draft and there is value to be had there. It’s hard to find home runs near the end of your draft and with an ADP of 314 (1B 23) he won’t cost you a thing. He’s getting drafted in the 22nd round or not at all in standard 12 man leagues. Only 20 players has 25 or more home runs last season. Teixeira will hit that mark in 2015.

C.J. Cron

Cron wasn’t even thought of about a month ago, he was not on the Fantasy Baseball radar, but Josh Hamilton has made Cron very interesting. Hamilton is out until at least the end of May due to shoulder surgery and he’s facing a suspension which could be as many as 25 game for a relapse. The Angels are hoping for a decision on Hamilton before Opening Day. Either way,  Matt Joyce will take Hamilton’s spot in left field and maybe in the clean up spot against right handed pitchers and Cron should be the regular DH and will get some looks in the 4-spot as well. The Angels traded away Howie Kendrick who was their hits leader from last year and he did a fine job hitting cleanup in Hamilton’s absence.

Cron’s ADP is certainly rising but at 404 he may be left on the draft board and that would be a mistake. Cron has big time power hitting 11 home runs in 253 plate appearances. He hits the type of home runs teammates told stories about. He hit seven in 213 AAA at bats last season and 14 in AA in 2013. Cron is a lot like former Angel Mark Trumbo as he just mashes baseballs and strikes out a ton (24 K%). We don’t like that California Cron struck out 40.7 percent of pitches outside the zone (the same 14th rank as Hamilton) but we like his 24.1% LD rate. If he can get 500 plate appearances and I think he does, 25 home runs is not out of reach for 17th overall pick in 2010.

First Base Busts

Citing him as a full on bust seems a bit extreme, but, I’m pessimistic about Freddie Freeman‘s ability to fulfill his cost this draft season. Currently being selected as a late third round pick, Freeman is going to need to demonstrate growth in order to justify his top-8 selection at his position. As the folks at So Called Fantasy Experts point out, that might be tough to do given the limited protection (and thus limited run production) Freeman has around him in the Atlanta lineup. That lineup caused a bit of a dip in his RBI production from the year prior (109 in 2013, 78 last year) and his BABIP leveled off to a more reasonable if not still too high .351 a year ago. Freeman absolutely tore the cover off the ball, producing a 31.0% line drive rate, but that cost him a few longballs. He’ll always hit for a solid average with that type of profile but at a position where you’ve got to have some pop to supplement deficiencies elsewhere on your roster in those categories Freeman is a risky early round selection. As you’ll note below, there are equally intriguing options to be had much later.

Todd Frazier is a better fit for 3B discussion, but with dual position eligibility I’ve found reason to throw the bust label on him here. You’ll see in a moment that Joey Votto is a strong bounceback candidate, and it was for him that Frazier filled in on the other corner last year. Frazier set a number of significant career highs in 2014, and while for a fourth year pro that could be viewed as simple a coming of age, I’m wary that some of the marks won’t be repeatable. His .309 BABIP was just 15 points above his career mark, but still seems to be a bit on the high side given his 21.7% LD rate and his HR/FB ratio is through the roof compared to career norms (17.0% after 11.2 in 2013 and a career average of 14.5). If both of those numbers level off, and assuming he’ll be unable to match a career best 20 steals this season then Frazier is simply another tool in the box rather than the top-4 finisher you’ll note in the chart above. He’s being drafted at the start of the 5th round, and simply put there is value to be had elsewhere.

Bounce back First Basemen

Coming off a season in which he missed 100 games, Joey Votto is the 16th first baseman being taken off the board in standard drafts and carries an ADP of 72 overall. The early word is that the quad issue that hampered him last year is behind him and that Votto is ready to hit the ground running this Spring. I know that there is a lot of conversation taking place about his lack of power and willingness to take a walk as opposed to swing for the fences, but you can’t fault him for the latter – particularly in OBP leagues. Votto hit .255 in his abridged 62 game season last year, but I’m blaming the injury and am looking forward to a return to form this season. In 2013 he played a full 162 game slate and hit .305/.435/.491 with 24 home runs and 73 RBI. He won’t be a big run producer this season, with a walk rate projected in the 17-20% range, but I’d expect his BABIP to rebound (down to .299 last year, 56 points below his career norm) and his HR/FB numbers are due for a rebound from 10.7% with a healthy set of legs as well. A 20 home run, .300 season is in the offing and you can get it on the cheap.

Another top-round first baseman from 2014 not getting a lot of love on draft day is Chris Davis. Understandably so, after a disappointing campaign, but fantasy baseball is all about finding value. Much like he was a poor investment a year ago because of over inflated/tough to sustain numbers he is a great investment in 2015 because of a perceived lack of value. Davis still smacked 26 home runs in 126 games a year ago, and while his poor batting average can be linked to his 33% strikeout rate which is more or less in line with career averages, it is due for a rebound. Davis suffered for a number of reasons last year, notably that K rate and falling victim to the shifts deployed against him, but part of his poor BABIP (.242) boils down to bad luck – it was 91 points below his five year average last season. After all, he hit 24.6% line drives and still hit fly balls out of the park at an obnoxious rate (22.6%, third best in baseball behind Giancarlo Stanton and fellow 1B Jose Abreu). Look for a more tolerable .250 range batting average with plenty of pop (112 home runs over the last three seasons) and take the discount here.

Late Round Lottery Tickets: First Base

Brandon Belt‘s bounce back/late round steal status has been covered in depth already this offseason, and while he’s at a much deeper stage of the draft than Votto he can still provide a lot of value. The Coles Notes on that earlier piece: Like Votto, Belt missed 100 games (101) last season due to a combination of injuries, including a stretch after a solid 35 game opening salvo. A smooth swinger with power hitter potential, Belt hit nine bombs in those first 35 games but struggled over his next 26 and failed to find his power bat after a wrist injury. That’ll happen with that type of an ailment. He arrives at camp fully healthy and ready to resume the breakout trajectory he was on in 2014 before the injury imp got in the way. Get behind Belt in the late regions of your draft.

Justin Morneau made his National League debut and turned in a fantastic 2014 season with the Colorado Rockies taking the NL batting title with a .319 Average. He added 17 Home Runs and led the team with 82 RBI’s. Not too shabby for a 1B that many believed was finished. But being in the friendly confines of Coors Field did wonders for the soon to be 34-year-old.

Yes, risks will be involved with drafting Morneau. For one, he’ll be a year older. There’s a strong chance he could share 1B duties with catcher Wilin Rosario from time-to-time so reaching 17 HR, and 82 RBI once again may be unlikely. But late in the draft, why not take a chance on a guy who was one of the hottest hitters in the MLB in 2014. His .309 road average proved it wasn’t all success on home soil but you definitely can’t go wrong when you call Coors Field your home. He had a hard-hit rate at 19.2% which was good for 42nd best in the majors. Morneau hit .341 against right-handed pitchers with a .927 OPS so he may just be one of the better plays against right-handed pitchers in the game. That’s a pretty valuable piece to have on your roster.

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