2015 Starting Pitcher Position Primer
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With offense down across baseball there are more fantasy relevant pitchers, and it is becoming increasingly common to see fantasy aces fly off the board early in drafts. In standard formats, pitching comprises half the categories, so acquiring a go-to arm and astutely building around him is encouraged.
Still, depth at the position allows for savvy mid-round drafting, and top-tier arms emerge from the periphery annually. Injuries – both nagging and severe – to starters are aplenty, which ensures the position remains highly volatile yearly, too.
While balancing your fake rotation with upside, security and a clean bill of health is difficult, it should be the goal. Building your staff around an ace, mid-round upside picks and filling it out with a few late-round lottery tickets is a sound approach. Again, it is easier said than done.
Streaming the position is also becoming commonplace, and key contributors are acquired off the waiver wire every year. The draft sets the table, but your meal ticket is punched with shrewd in-season moves. A well balanced pitching staff allows you to advantageously attack the waiver wire and not rely on it out of desperation.
Top 5 Starting Pitchers
Note: the Top 5 list below represents the viewpoint of its contributor, our Esten McLaren. For staff consensus ranks, take the jump.
5. Yu Darvish, TEX Update March 7: Darvish will reportedly miss a minimum of four months with a UCL issue and Tommy John Surgery is on the table.
Darvish is making his return from an elbow injury that shortened his 2014 season to 22 starts. Had he finished the season, he would’ve ranked eighth in the American League for ERA and first in strikeout rate. A full season from Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, should provide the Rangers and Darvish with a few more wins as well. It’s plenty fair to expect a return to form that saw Darvish finish as the runner-up to Scherzer for the American League Cy Young Award in 2013.
4. Stephen Strasburg, WSH
Of those aforementioned Nationals starters, Strasburg was ranked the lowest last season with an ERA of 3.14. The 26-year-old RHP suffered from an opponents BABIP, an HR/9, a HR/FB, and a WHIP all well above career average. The expected progression translates into Strasburg’s 2.56 xFIP last season, a mark that would have ranked him 10th in the MLB if it were his ERA. Strasburg did manage to finish in a tie for fifth in terms of strikeouts last season, and offers across the board stability.
3. Max Scherzer, WSH
In 2014, four Nationals’ starters ranked in the top 16 in National League ERA. Scherzer now heads into that same NL East division, and will be ready to feast on the likes of the Mets, Braves, Marlins and Phillies. Last season, Scherzer ranked inside the MLB’s top 10 for innings pitched, wins, and strikeouts. He’s the first pitcher on this list who’s xFIP was lower than his 2014 ERA as he’ll be likely to rebound from an opponents BABIP of .315 that was well above his career average.
2. Felix Hernandez, SEA
2014’s American League leader in ERA is the only pitcher who can come close to Kershaw in a barroom debate among friends. The numbers indicate he is due for slight regression as well with his 2.51 xFIP looking large only when compared to his 2.14 ERA of last season. Like Kershaw, Hernandez strands the vast majority of the few base runners he allows, while also inducing a staggeringly high ground ball rate. Once prospective owners factor in the advantage Hernandez gains from making half his starts at SafeCo field, he’s the logical number two.
1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Duh. Even with the (slight) regression that will surely come in 2015 – see his 1.77 ERA vs. 2.08 xFIP in 2014 – Kershaw would still rank number one in Major League Baseball by a fair margin. In just 27 starts, Kershaw accumulated a WAR of 7.2 last season. Let there be no doubt that he is the number pitcher in Fantasy Baseball, and the only question whether to select him with the third overall pick, as is currently the case. With the Dodgers remaining about equally competitive heading into 2015 – Dee Gordon, Hanley Ramirez out, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal, Jimmy Rollins in – Kershaw will have an excellent chance to eclipse 20 wins for the third time in five years.
Rookies to Watch: Starting Pitcher
Syndergaard has a fastball that touches triple digits on the gun which explains his 145 K in 133 IP, but it wasn’t all good for the Mets prospect who supported a 4.60 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in Triple-A Las Vegas. That said, the Pacific Coast League is a hitter-friendly environment. The ERA was high last season as was his .378 BABIP and 67.2% strand rate. Numbers that didn’t work in Syndergaard’s favor. He has far more upside than Zack Wheeler, but Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee are standing in his way, at least for now. Syndergaard will start the year in the minors, but is certainly someone who should be drafted in keeper leagues.
Heaney hardly impressed in his 29.1 innings last season with the Marlins allowing a total of six home runs and 19 total runs. The home runs were especially surprising for the groundball pitcher who had a 0.30 HR/9 in two years of minor league ball. Then again, that sort of thing tends to happen to rookies. The ninth overall pick in 2012 was traded twice during the offseason and will get a chance to crack the Angels rotation this season with Tyler Skaggs and Garrett Richards sidelined to start 2015.
The lefty moved through the minor leagues pretty quickly (two years) posting a 2.35 ERA and 8.72 K/9 in 53.2 IP in AA in 2014, followed by a 3.87 ERA and 9.79 K/9 in 83.2 IP in AAA. MLB.com rated Heaney as the 5th-best pitching prospect. Heaney is nothing more than a late-round flyer and stream option in redraft leagues. It’s a different story if you’re playing in keeper formats as Kiley McDaniel from FanGraps has Heaney as a future number 2 or 3.
Another chucker on this list that can throw the heat! Sanchez hit 99 MPH a few times in his 33 innings last season with the Jays and his average fastball clocks in at 97. It remains to be seen if he will be the 5th starter for Toronto this season or if he’ll come out of the pen again. A small sample size for sure, but Sanchez had a 65.9% groundball rate and 27 strikeouts to go along with a 1.09 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. If things don’t work out with Brett Cecil, Sanchez would be next in line for saves. With that said, he may just play himself into the rotation, he’s at least getting starts in Spring.
Is this the year we finally see Archie Bradley and his 96 MPH fastball in the bigs? Most likely, but it probably won’t be until after the All-Star break. Bradley only has 24.1 AAA innings under his belt and just like his previous innings in AA and A ball, the knock on the 6-4, 225 pound right-hander remains the same…he has no control. The Diamondbacks prospect posted a 5.93 BB/9 in AA and 4.44 in AAA. Usually minor league ball players only walk when their team bus breaks down, so if Bradley is going to make the jump, his command will need to improve drastically. If you’re playing in a keeper league, you can patiently wait for the 22-year-old like the rest of Diamondbacks nation.
Jonathan Gray
Much like Bradley, Gray may not get the call to the show until after the All-Star break. He’s also like every other pitcher on this list…he can hit triple digits on the radar. He certainly profiles as an ace, but let’s not forget that when he eventually gets his chance he’ll be pitching half his games at Coors Field.
Bundy struggled when he returned from Tommy John surgery, but was one of the games best prospects before getting injured. Bundy struck out 119 batters, walked 28, post a 2.09 ERA and 0.916 WHIP over 103.2 innings between A and AA ball in 2012. All that before blowing up his elbow. Expect the O’s to be cautious with him, but you can also expect to see him at some point this season. He should be drafted in dynasty leagues, but has little value in redraft leagues.
Rodon is number 2 on MLB.com’s prospect list and the 22-year-old lefty has been compared to David Price and teammate Chris Sale. Last year’s third overall pick is expected to start the season in the minors, but he won’t last long as he has far more skill and upside than say… Hector Noesi. Rodon only has 12 AAA innings under his belt, but he allowed only 12 hits and struck out 18. He skipped AA ball so the White Sox will more than likely let him pitch a few more innings before calling him up. We could see him out of the pen in the first year, much like Sale who picked up 12 saves over his first two seasons before making the switch to a starter.
Starting Pitcher Sleepers
Garrett Richards
Our very own Jon Collins already featured Richards here inside the locker room and Chris Meaney pegged him as a great value pick from the this year’s FTSA/Sirius XM draft. Richards was one of the best pitchers in baseball before he went down with a knee injury. Word out of camp is that he will begin the year on the DL for about two to three weeks before making his season debut. Richards would not only have received a few Cy Young votes last year if not for his injury, but he would have finished inside the top 10 in about every category. People may stay away because of his injury, but it’s a knee, not a shoulder. People may look to his BABIP and HR/FB ratio as reasons to stay away, but when you throw a 97 cutter and pitch in a pitcher friendly environment those numbers don’t seem so far fetched.
Shoemaker came out of nowhere last year with 16 wins, a 3.04 ERA, 8.21 K/9 and 1.56 BB/9. That walk rate would have ranked inside the top 10 if he had the innings to qualify and his K/BB ratio would have ranked 12th as he joined the Angels rotation in May. So far, experts are not believing he can repeat those numbers and I think they are wrong. His 400 plus innings in AAA over the last three years were nothing to brag about, but we can give him the benefit of the doubt pitching in the Pacific Coast League.
Wins are hard to predict, but he only lost four games in 2014 and led the majors in winning percentage. Shoemaker’s ERA from last year (3.04) was 29th and his 1.07 WHIP was 7th in baseball among pitchers who threw 130 innings. His peripherals indicate his numbers were no fluke and the Angels offense is just as strong as a year ago which should give him a chance at double-digit wins yet again. It’s hard to call the undrafted 28-year-old a sleeper due to the fact that he has a #58 ECR rank per FantasyPros, but he finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting and finished as a top 30 pitcher and is primed to finish inside the top 30 again with a full season.
Keuchel is currently the 60th pitcher off the board according to FantasyPros and that is way too low for a pitcher that returned top 30 value last season. Keuchel led the league with a 63.5 GB% last season and registered the 18th best FIB at 3.21, proving that while his sub-three ERA was a tad lucky, it was just that…a tad lucky. His 6.57 K/9 and fastball that tops out around 90 mph does not scream draft me, but his sinker is what produces the groundballs as only six percent of his pitches were thrown in the upper third of the strike zone, resulting in only 11 home runs in 200 innings in 2014. He threw his sinker over 40 percent of the time and generated almost a 77% groundball rate. Keuchel should finish inside the top 50 with upside to yet again be a top 30 pitcher.
Shut down 154 innings into his coming of age season, McHugh was a revelation for the Astros last year. He was on his third club in three MLB seasons mind you, and he’s had this type of success just once but with a 2.73 ERA and matching 3.11 FIP and xFIP the sense is that he pitched right around where he should have last year. McHugh benefitted from a .205 BABIP and a 9.5 HR/FB% which were both well below league and personal averages but he did so by exhibiting great control. With solid movement on his complimentary pitches and a fundamental shift in the way he approaches at bats, McHugh was able to overcome a below average fastball that plagued him early in his career. He added 1.2 MPH to his now 91.4 MPH average velocity heater, but relied on that just 40% of the time, mixing in an effective arsenal of sliders, cutters and change ups. With the third best slider of any SP who threw over 150 innings McHugh kept hitters off balance in 2014 and projects to do more of the same in the year ahead.
The Mariners are taking things slow with the 26-year-old this Spring but the hope is to get him ready to stretch things out by the end of Spring. Solid in his first extended action, Paxton posted a 6-4 record and a 3.04 ERA in 13 starts (74 innings). That ERA was aided a bit by a 6.4 HR/FB ratio which is sure to rise, but it is also indicative of a young pitcher ready to take on a bigger load in 2015. With an average fastball velocity of 94.4 MPH from the left side, his heater ranked better than all but 21 qualified pitchers (with only 74 IP, mind you, Paxton himself didn’t qualify). He’ll take his hard throwing style to the middle of Seattle’s rotation this year and could post solid numbers if he gets enough innings.
Fresh off a $12 million average annual contract with the Dodgers, McCarthy is going borderline undrafted in some leagues. That shouldn’t be the case. A victim of an obnoxious HR/FB rate and a BABIP well above his career norm, McCarthy was identified by many last season as a candidate for a 2nd half rebound and he did just that after arriving in New York. He pitched to a 2.89 era and 81/13 K/BB ratio in 14 starts for the Yankees and now moves back to the senior circuit with a Dodgers team we’re expecting to win a lot of games. McCarthy is a classic example of a pitcher who can really help your ratios late in drafts, provided his end of season return to form holds.
Starting Pitcher Busts
I don’t want to add to the overkill here, as Phil Hughes has been a well publicized bust candidate this season but I think we’d be remiss in overlooking it. Our staff all rank Hughes as a mid-40s range SP but he’ll come a lot pricier at the draft table this year. Hughes’ xFip was actually well below his 3.52 ERA last season, a mark that he produced despite surrendering a BABIP of .324 (and thus not benefiting explicitly from good luck). A big reason for the reduction: a drop in baserunners, created by a .69% walk rate. That Hughes produced that number in his seventh season is more than a little bit anomalous, and I’m expecting the number to come back up. With the rest of his metrics trending around his career average, we could see his ERA work its way back up to the 4+ range in 2015 and there are many more appetizing options available at Hughes’ current draft cost.
Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka tends to be a more divisive conversation point. You’ll see below that I think injury concerns often present value-buy situations, but, with Tanaka I can’t bring myself to take the plunge (unless the price is too good to resist). With ranks ranging from 16-52 among FantasyPros’ experts there is no real consensus on what to expect from the second year Major Leaguer. There is nothing wrong with his 2014 measurables of course, but, while everything has been reportedly going well in early Spring work his plan to avoid Tommy John Surgery last season presents a situation where no one knows what to expect from his UCL and right arm in general. An owner who takes the leap could stand to reap significant benefits from Tanaka’s services this year, but with his current ADP in the range of steady vet James Shields (in a friendly pitchers’ environment) and upside candidates Gerrit Cole and Alex Wood the risk is too strong for my liking.
Bounce back Starting Pitchers
Announcing Matt Harvey as my top bounce back candidate is a bit cheesy, I suppose, given that he is nearly universally ranked as a top-30 SP with a #19 ECR per FantasyPros but I’ll use his case to point out that players like Harvey (somewhat forgotten, coming off injury) can be prime value play opportunities if they slip in your draft. Be it from uncertainty or forgetfulness, owners in your league may overlook Harvey which presents an opportunity for ambitious owners. By the time the season starts, Harvey will be a year and a half removed from his surgery and prepared to get back to his old self as 2015 progresses. The last time we saw Harvey on the bump he’d posted back-to-back seasons to start his career with an ERA sub 2.75 and a K/9 over 9.6. He produced those numbers with solid velocity across all pitch types, including a fastball averaging more than 95 MPH which may or may not return to form at this stage but he doesn’t need to produce parallel numbers to deliver value on his current price in most formats.
Looking a little deeper, Justin Verlander is another player with an opportunity to make good on his lessened draft stock after a down year. Noting that I get plenty of calls wrong, I’ll mention that I correctly pegged Verlander as a bust candidate last year. This year though, the scenario is different. As noted with Harvey, the expectations aren’t quite what they were before and Verlander doesn’t have to get a whole lot better to deliver value on his draft day price.My chief reason for being down on Verlander last season? Limited prep time after his core injury. That won’t be an issue in 2015, nor will his overall preparedness for the season. He’s reportedly in camp at 237 pounds ( a ‘good gain’), healthy and determined.
2014 marked the 5th straight year of velocity decline for the Tigers’ SP, with his fastball registering at 93.1 MPH along with declining pitch values across the board according to FanGraphs. I’m not expecting a full turn around in those categories, either, given that the decline had been coming over multiple seasons and can’t be solely blamed on his 2013/14 injury but he does seem well positioned to stave off further decline and carries very little draft day cost. Bear in mind, Verlander is just two seasons removed from a 2.64 ERA with a K/9 above nine and posted respectable numbers in 2013 as well.
Late Round Lottery Tickets: Starting Pitcher
Michael Pineda is getting almost no attention in standard leagues this season, coming off the board at pick #179 on average. That, after a 1.89 ERA in an injury and controversy plagued 2014 season seems to be a buying opportunity. His fastball velocity was down considerably last year (91.9 MPH) but his slider remains a deadly pitch, ranking well above average in terms of runs over replacement. Pineda threw the pitch 34.4% of the time last season and rode it to below average contact numbers and an 11.2 swinging strike %. He’s going to be a solid mid-front of the rotation option for New York this season and could pay dividends at little cost.
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